%% Large US public-company bankruptcies, monthly, April 1980 to date % % A case is a Chapter 7 or Chapter 11 petition by a US public company with % total assets of at least $100 million in 1980 dollars, the definition of % the Florida-UCLA-LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database (BRD). % % 1980-04 to 2022-12 monthly counts from the BRD (final release, January % 2023), written at the bottom of this file. The BRD % itself is licensed and is not redistributed here. % 2023-01 onwards cases from SEC Form 8-K filings under Item 1.03, % listed in bankruptcy_cases.csv (same folder) with a % link to each filing. % % This script builds the monthly series from those two sources and draws it. % Finding new cases on EDGAR is done by update_bankruptcies.py --harvest. % % Output: bankruptcies_monthly.csv with the same columns as the Python % script: month, cases, cases_ch11, cases_ch7, cases_ma12, source, % nber_recession. % % Cite: LoPucki, L. M. (2023), Florida-UCLA-LoPucki Bankruptcy Research % Database, final release January 2023, for 1980-2022. % % Requires MATLAB R2019b or later. clear; clc; % Last complete month: 8-Ks are due four business days after a petition. today = datetime('today'); lastMonth = dateshift(today, 'start', 'month') - calmonths(1); if day(today) < 8, lastMonth = lastMonth - calmonths(1); end month = (datetime(1980,4,1):calmonths(1):lastMonth)'; n = numel(month); splice = datetime(2023,1,1); early = month < splice; % BRD segment [cAll, cCh11, cCh7] = brd_counts(); brdMonths = (datetime(1980,1,1):calmonths(1):datetime(2022,12,1))'; cases = zeros(n,1); ch11 = zeros(n,1); ch7 = zeros(n,1); [hit, loc] = ismember(month, brdMonths); cases(hit) = cAll(loc(hit)); ch11(hit) = cCh11(loc(hit)); ch7(hit) = cCh7(loc(hit)); % SEC 8-K segment C = readtable('bankruptcy_cases.csv', 'TextType', 'string'); pm = dateshift(datetime(C.petition_date, 'InputFormat', 'yyyy-MM-dd'), 'start', 'month'); for i = find(~early)' sel = pm == month(i); cases(i) = sum(sel); ch11(i) = sum(sel & C.chapter == 11); ch7(i) = sum(sel & C.chapter == 7); end ma12 = movmean(cases, [11 0]); % trailing 12-month mean (shorter at the start) [tR, rec] = fred('USREC'); nber = nan(n,1); [hit, loc] = ismember(month, tR); nber(hit) = rec(loc(hit)); source = repmat("sec_8k", n, 1); source(early) = "brd"; T = table(string(datestr(month, 'yyyy-mm')), cases, ch11, ch7, round(ma12, 4), source, nber, ... 'VariableNames', {'month','cases','cases_ch11','cases_ch7','cases_ma12','source','nber_recession'}); writetable(T, 'bankruptcies_monthly.csv'); fprintf('Wrote bankruptcies_monthly.csv: %d months, %s to %s, %d cases\n', n, T.month(1), T.month(end), sum(cases)); fprintf('Last 12 months: %d cases; latest month %s: %d\n', sum(cases(end-11:end)), T.month(end), cases(end)); % Chart: monthly counts, 12-month mean, NBER recessions figure('Color', 'w'); hold on; yl = [0 max(cases) + 1]; inRec = nber == 1; starts = find(diff([0; inRec]) == 1); stops = find(diff([inRec; 0]) == -1); for k = 1:numel(starts) x0 = month(starts(k)); x1 = month(stops(k)) + calmonths(1); patch([x0 x1 x1 x0], [yl(1) yl(1) yl(2) yl(2)], [0.88 0.88 0.88], 'EdgeColor', 'none', 'HandleVisibility', 'off'); end bar(month, cases, 1, 'FaceColor', [0.75 0.82 0.93], 'EdgeColor', 'none', 'DisplayName', 'Cases in the month'); plot(month, ma12, 'Color', [0.16 0.47 0.84], 'LineWidth', 1.6, 'DisplayName', '12-month mean'); xline(splice, ':', 'BRD | SEC 8-K', 'HandleVisibility', 'off'); ylim(yl); grid on; box on; legend('Location', 'northwest'); ylabel('Large public-company bankruptcies per month'); %% ---------------------------------------------------------------- functions function [t, x] = fred(id) % Download one monthly FRED series. FRED's server stalls on MATLAB's default % request, so ask for an uncompressed reply on a kept-alive connection. url = ['https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=' id '&cosd=1979-01-01']; file = [tempname '.csv']; opts = weboptions('Timeout', 60, 'UserAgent', 'bankruptcy-update/1.0', ... 'HeaderFields', {'Accept-Encoding', 'identity'; 'Connection', 'keep-alive'}); websave(file, url, opts); o = detectImportOptions(file); o = setvartype(o, 2, 'double'); D = readtable(file, o); delete(file); t = dateshift(datetime(D{:,1}), 'start', 'month'); x = D{:,2}; end function [cAll, cCh11, cCh7] = brd_counts() % Florida-UCLA-LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database, final release % (12 January 2023): cases by month of filing, 1980-01 to 2022-12, one row % per year, January to December. NaN is before the series starts. A = [ 1980 NaN NaN NaN 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1981 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1982 0 1 0 3 1 1 2 2 0 1 1 1 1983 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1984 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 1985 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 1986 2 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1987 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 1988 1 4 1 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 1989 2 0 3 1 0 0 1 1 2 1 3 2 1990 2 2 4 5 2 2 1 0 2 4 3 3 1991 6 6 1 4 5 2 3 1 3 2 2 6 1992 8 2 2 1 2 3 0 4 2 7 1 0 1993 2 2 3 2 3 1 1 1 2 1 3 4 1994 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 4 1 1995 1 0 0 0 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 0 1996 3 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 0 1 1997 2 1 0 0 1 1 5 3 2 0 1 1 1998 5 3 0 0 1 2 3 1 4 4 4 4 1999 3 4 7 1 1 5 2 3 6 5 3 5 2000 7 6 4 8 9 9 4 7 7 5 6 8 2001 9 3 9 15 8 5 9 6 6 8 9 10 2002 9 13 10 7 8 7 2 3 3 7 8 6 2003 3 2 7 4 8 9 7 6 4 4 1 2 2004 1 4 7 1 2 3 0 1 3 3 2 2 2005 6 3 1 1 2 0 1 1 4 3 1 2 2006 1 1 3 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 2007 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2008 3 3 2 3 1 1 4 2 3 4 6 7 2009 10 9 16 9 9 6 5 6 3 6 10 2 2010 3 3 3 2 4 3 1 3 3 2 5 4 2011 1 3 0 3 1 2 0 1 1 2 5 4 2012 3 4 1 2 2 0 2 4 0 2 1 3 2013 4 3 4 4 0 5 1 1 3 0 1 0 2014 0 1 4 5 0 1 0 1 2 2 1 0 2015 1 2 6 0 2 1 3 4 2 2 0 2 2016 3 5 4 5 9 3 3 3 1 3 2 2 2017 5 1 2 2 5 3 1 1 1 1 4 4 2018 2 3 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 2019 2 3 1 4 2 3 1 3 1 2 2 1 2020 1 2 3 5 12 9 9 4 5 2 3 1 2021 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 2022 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 ]; B = [ 1980 NaN NaN NaN 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1981 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1982 0 1 0 3 1 1 2 2 0 1 1 1 1983 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 1 0 1984 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 2 0 1 1985 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 2 1 1 1 0 1986 2 1 2 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1987 0 1 1 2 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 1988 1 4 1 0 1 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 1989 2 0 3 1 0 0 1 1 2 1 3 2 1990 2 2 4 5 2 2 1 0 2 4 3 3 1991 6 6 1 4 5 2 3 1 3 2 2 6 1992 8 2 2 1 2 3 0 4 2 7 1 0 1993 2 2 3 2 3 1 1 1 2 1 3 4 1994 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 3 1 1995 1 0 0 0 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 0 1996 3 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 0 1 1997 2 1 0 0 1 1 5 3 2 0 1 1 1998 5 3 0 0 1 2 3 1 4 4 4 4 1999 3 4 7 1 1 5 2 3 6 5 3 5 2000 7 6 4 8 9 9 4 7 7 5 6 8 2001 9 3 9 15 8 5 9 6 6 8 9 10 2002 9 12 10 7 8 7 2 3 3 7 7 6 2003 3 2 7 4 8 8 7 6 4 4 1 2 2004 1 4 7 1 2 3 0 1 3 3 2 2 2005 6 3 1 1 2 0 1 1 4 3 1 2 2006 1 1 3 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 1 2007 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 2008 3 3 2 3 1 1 3 2 3 3 4 7 2009 9 9 15 9 9 6 4 5 2 6 8 2 2010 3 3 2 2 1 2 1 3 2 2 5 2 2011 1 3 0 2 1 2 0 1 1 2 5 4 2012 3 4 1 2 2 0 2 4 0 2 1 3 2013 4 3 4 4 0 5 0 1 3 0 1 0 2014 0 1 4 5 0 1 0 1 2 2 1 0 2015 1 2 6 0 2 1 3 4 2 2 0 2 2016 3 5 3 5 9 3 3 3 0 3 2 2 2017 5 1 2 2 5 3 1 1 1 1 4 4 2018 2 3 4 1 1 0 0 0 0 4 0 1 2019 2 3 1 4 2 3 1 3 1 1 2 1 2020 1 2 3 5 12 9 9 4 5 2 3 1 2021 1 0 2 0 1 1 0 2 0 1 0 0 2022 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 0 0 1 ]; C = [ 1980 NaN NaN NaN 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1981 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1982 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1983 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1984 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1985 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1986 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1987 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1989 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1990 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1991 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1992 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1993 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1994 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1995 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1996 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1997 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1998 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1999 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2001 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2002 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2003 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2004 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2005 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2006 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2007 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2008 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 2009 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 2 0 2010 0 0 1 0 3 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 2011 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2013 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 2014 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2016 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2019 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ]; cAll = reshape(A(:, 2:13)', [], 1); cCh11 = reshape(B(:, 2:13)', [], 1); cCh7 = reshape(C(:, 2:13)', [], 1); end